Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (69%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 31¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 83%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
$91.55
41.3¢ → 31¢
-25% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 31%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100 | Overavg 65¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$135.56 | 55% 718-583 (1301) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48.9¢ | $590.74 | $610.18 | +$19.44 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 65¢ | $650 | $495 | -$155 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 36.6¢ | $443.69 | $430.21 | -$13.49 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
 RN1 | Overavg 49.3¢ | $235.87 | $330.03 | +$94.16 | 57% 4056-3070 (7126) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Underavg 51¢ | $198.04 | $207.75 | +$9.71 | 53% 1841-1653 (3494) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $96 | $99 | +$3 | 50% 3299-3255 (6554) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 49.3¢ | $45.39 | $43.37 | -$2.02 | 49% 684-724 (1408) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 36.5¢ | $13.36 | $13.54 | +$0.18 | 55% 658-540 (1198) |
Invested
$1,240.74
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$135.56
Record
55%
718-583 (1301)
Both legs:
Invested
$443.69
Value
$430.21
PnL
-$13.49
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
RN1Invested
$235.87
Value
$330.03
PnL
+$94.16
Record
57%
4056-3070 (7126)
Invested
$198.04
Value
$207.75
PnL
+$9.71
Record
53%
1841-1653 (3494)
Invested
$96
Value
$99
PnL
+$3
Record
50%
3299-3255 (6554)
Invested
$45.39
Value
$43.37
PnL
-$2.02
Record
49%
684-724 (1408)
Invested
$13.36
Value
$13.54
PnL
+$0.18
Record
55%
658-540 (1198)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.