Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 52¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$43.09

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 51.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,940

Combined PnL-$43.09

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 57¢	$608.2	$561.02	-$47.18	55% 718-583 (1301)
RN1	Underavg 49.5¢	$199.1	$221.92	+$22.81	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 58¢	$210.91	$161.41	-$40.5	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
└ Over leg	Overavg 58¢	$147.61	$106.89	-$43.32
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$51.7	$54.52	+$2.82
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 55¢	$142.01	$132.97	-$9.04	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 42¢	$126.21	$117.2	-$9.01	31% 405-886 (1291)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Underavg 53.2¢	$87.87	$81.43	-$6.44	49% 684-724 (1408)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.2¢	$57.45	$56.73	-$0.72
└ Over leg	Overavg 58.5¢	$30.42	$24.7	-$5.72
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 41¢	$21.1	$20.33	-$0.77	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 38¢	$7.6	$7.7	+$0.1	55% 658-540 (1198)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$608.2

Value

$561.02

PnL

-$47.18

Record

55%

718-583 (1301)

RN1

Under

Invested

$199.1

Value

$221.92

PnL

+$22.81

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$210.91

Value

$161.41

PnL

-$40.5

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

Both legs:

Over$147.6158¢-$43.32

Under$51.755¢+$2.82

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$142.01

Value

$132.97

PnL

-$9.04

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$126.21

Value

$117.2

PnL

-$9.01

Record

31%

405-886 (1291)

Pan9XARB<$100

Under

Invested

$87.87

Value

$81.43

PnL

-$6.44

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

Both legs:

Under$57.4553.2¢-$0.72

Over$30.4258.5¢-$5.72

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$21.1

Value

$20.33

PnL

-$0.77

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

658-540 (1198)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.