Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 70¢ · $527 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 33%
1 arb excluded
$526.66
-$8.65
66¢ → 69.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 70%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 74¢ | $219.64 | $206.42 | -$13.22 | 57% 4056-3070 (7126) |
 rafaleaoo | Underavg 57¢ | $147.68 | $152.86 | +$5.18 | 2% 14-633 (647) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 26.1¢ | $97.5 | $99.42 | +$1.92 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 26.1¢ | $78.62 | $75.42 | -$3.2 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 59¢ | $18.88 | $24 | +$5.12 | |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $42.23 | $41.72 | -$0.51 | 30% 399-910 (1309) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $15.58 | $15.58 | -$0 | 49% 684-724 (1408) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 41.2¢ | $9.19 | $9.21 | +$0.01 | 55% 658-540 (1198) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $1.57 | $1.46 | -$0.11 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
RN1Invested
$219.64
Value
$206.42
PnL
-$13.22
Record
57%
4056-3070 (7126)
rafaleaooInvested
$147.68
Value
$152.86
PnL
+$5.18
Record
2%
14-633 (647)
Invested
$97.5
Value
$99.42
PnL
+$1.92
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Both legs:
Invested
$42.23
Value
$41.72
PnL
-$0.51
Record
30%
399-910 (1309)
Invested
$15.58
Value
$15.58
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
684-724 (1408)
Invested
$9.19
Value
$9.21
PnL
+$0.01
Record
55%
658-540 (1198)
Invested
$1.57
Value
$1.46
PnL
-$0.11
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.