Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Grizzlies, while the market favors Nuggets (56%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (67%) · Grizzlies at 45¢ · $769 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Grizzlies
6
Grizzlies 67%
$769.27
$5.62
45¢ → 44.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidGrizzlies at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Nuggets 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadoxCTR | Grizzliesavg 45¢ | $484.6 | $489.98 | +$5.38 | 30% 380-877 (1257) |
VE VenusianCTR | Grizzliesavg 45¢ | $225 | $225 | +$0 | 31% 390-873 (1263) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Grizzliesavg 45¢ | $26.97 | $27.27 | +$0.3 | 30% 379-881 (1260) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Nuggetsavg 55¢ | $21.27 | $21.07 | -$0.19 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Grizzliesavg 44¢ | $5.28 | $5.4 | +$0.12 | 51% 1853-1805 (3658) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Nuggetsavg 54¢ | $0.54 | $0.55 | +$0.01 | 48% 1381-1515 (2896) |
Invested
$484.6
Value
$489.98
PnL
+$5.38
Record
30%
380-877 (1257)
Invested
$225
Value
$225
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
390-873 (1263)
Invested
$26.97
Value
$27.27
PnL
+$0.3
Record
30%
379-881 (1260)
Invested
$21.27
Value
$21.07
PnL
-$0.19
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$5.28
Value
$5.4
PnL
+$0.12
Record
51%
1853-1805 (3658)
Invested
$0.54
Value
$0.55
PnL
+$0.01
Record
48%
1381-1515 (2896)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.