Spread: Suns (-6.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (50%) · Suns at 79¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Suns79¢Clippers21¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 50%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$246.06

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 79¢

+53% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Suns79%

Clippers21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,012

Combined PnL+$322.01

Clippers4 traders

Total Value$655.17

Total Shares1,525

Combined PnL-$75.95

Suns — 50%Clippers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Sunsavg 51.1¢	$704.78	$951.69	+$246.91	56% 502-393 (895)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Clippersavg 54¢	$545.2	$484.9	-$60.31	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
RN1	Sunsavg 49.8¢	$199.03	$260	+$60.96	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Clippersavg 49¢	$98	$96	-$2	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
TA takeormake<$100	Sunsavg 73¢	$81.76	$88.48	+$6.72	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
38 38791873984189<$100	Sunsavg 45¢	$54.45	$61.87	+$7.42	48% 959-1032 (1991)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Clippersavg 25.8¢	$73.52	$59.88	-$13.64	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Clippersavg 48¢	$14.4	$14.4	+$0	49% 446-472 (918)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Suns

Invested

$704.78

Value

$951.69

PnL

+$246.91

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Clippers

Invested

$545.2

Value

$484.9

PnL

-$60.31

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

RN1

Suns

Invested

$199.03

Value

$260

PnL

+$60.96

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$98

Value

$96

PnL

-$2

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

takeormake<$100

Suns

Invested

$81.76

Value

$88.48

PnL

+$6.72

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

38791873984189<$100

Suns

Invested

$54.45

Value

$61.87

PnL

+$7.42

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$73.52

Value

$59.88

PnL

-$13.64

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$14.4

Value

$14.4

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Suns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrClippers 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Suns 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.