Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 212.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 80¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Over80¢Under20¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$12.31

Smart Money Entry

75.1¢ → 79.5¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over80%

Under21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$873.68

Total Shares1,048

Combined PnL+$86.59

Under3 traders

Total Value$192.49

Total Shares1,514

Combined PnL-$98.9

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 81¢	$446.71	$455.1	+$8.39	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 56¢	$112	$165	+$53	54% 217-188 (405)
SU suitcase6628	Overavg 92¢	$165.6	$148.5	-$17.1	64% 180-100 (280)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 53¢	$59.08	$100.33	+$41.25	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 9.4¢	$91.89	$98.05	+$6.16	56% 504-395 (899)
RN1CTR	Underavg 37.1¢	$246.29	$73.36	-$36.42	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 42.6¢	$89.72	$21.08	-$68.65	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 74¢	$3.7	$4.75	+$1.05	54% 401-336 (737)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$446.71

Value

$455.1

PnL

+$8.39

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$112

Value

$165

PnL

+$53

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

suitcase6628

Over

Invested

$165.6

Value

$148.5

PnL

-$17.1

Record

64%

180-100 (280)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$59.08

Value

$100.33

PnL

+$41.25

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$91.89

Value

$98.05

PnL

+$6.16

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$246.29

Value

$73.36

PnL

-$36.42

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$89.72

Value

$21.08

PnL

-$68.65

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$3.7

Value

$4.75

PnL

+$1.05

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.