Spread: Lakers (-13.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (50%) · Lakers at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Lakers52¢Bucks48¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 50%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$20.73

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 51.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers52%

Bucks49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers3 traders

Total Value$928.96

Total Shares1,885

Combined PnL-$26.31

Bucks3 traders

Total Value$753.52

Total Shares1,508

Combined PnL+$5.59

Lakers — 50%Bucks — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Lakersavg 51¢	$655.23	$661.65	+$6.42	53% 1793-1600 (3393)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Bucksavg 49¢	$548.18	$548.18	-$0	51% 1822-1784 (3606)
RJ RJW1	Lakersavg 50¢	$297.85	$265.08	-$32.76	47% 118-132 (250)
38 38791873984189CTR	Bucksavg 53¢	$118.4	$123.99	+$5.59	48% 1310-1415 (2725)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Bucksavg 49¢	$81.35	$81.35	-$0	37% 340-570 (910)
LI Limousin<$100	Lakersavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.23	+$0.02	30% 373-863 (1236)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Lakers

Invested

$655.23

Value

$661.65

PnL

+$6.42

Record

53%

1793-1600 (3393)

FlaznorpCTR

Bucks

Invested

$548.18

Value

$548.18

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

1822-1784 (3606)

RJW1

Lakers

Invested

$297.85

Value

$265.08

PnL

-$32.76

Record

47%

118-132 (250)

38791873984189CTR

Bucks

Invested

$118.4

Value

$123.99

PnL

+$5.59

Record

48%

1310-1415 (2725)

sentrioCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$81.35

Value

$81.35

PnL

-$0

Record

37%

340-570 (910)

Limousin<$100

Lakers

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.02

Record

30%

373-863 (1236)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.