Spread: Heat (-24.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (43%) · Jazz at 87¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Heat13¢Jazz87¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$176.89

Smart Money Entry

87.6¢ → 87¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat13%

Jazz87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz3 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares4,020

Combined PnL+$47.31

Heat4 traders

Total Value$840.62

Total Shares5,158

Combined PnL+$129.58

Jazz — 43%Heat — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+43 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeat 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jazzavg 88¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$21.08	56% 504-395 (899)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Heatavg 13.9¢	$557.86	$681.43	+$123.57	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Jazzavg 85.6¢	$331.82	$160.76	+$0.55	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 85.6¢	$83.02	$83.91	+$5.58
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 14.4¢	$81.9	$76.86	-$5.04
RN1CTR	Heatavg 12.4¢	$98.12	$110.46	+$12.34	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
38 38791873984189<$100	Jazzavg 71¢	$85.67	$92.96	+$24.51	48% 969-1052 (2021)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jazzavg 86¢	$42.14	$43.86	+$1.72	49% 450-474 (924)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Heatavg 13.4¢	$25.95	$26.06	+$0.11	62% 2365-1458 (3823)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Heatavg 17.3¢	$29.11	$22.68	-$6.43	59% 3119-2207 (5326)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jazz

Invested

$3,414.66

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$21.08

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

FlaznorpCTR

Heat

Invested

$557.86

Value

$681.43

PnL

+$123.57

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$331.82

Value

$160.76

PnL

+$0.55

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

Both legs:

Jazz$83.0285.6¢+$5.58

Heat$81.914.4¢-$5.04

RN1CTR

Heat

Invested

$98.12

Value

$110.46

PnL

+$12.34

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

38791873984189<$100

Jazz

Invested

$85.67

Value

$92.96

PnL

+$24.51

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

Pan9X<$100

Jazz

Invested

$42.14

Value

$43.86

PnL

+$1.72

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$25.95

Value

$26.06

PnL

+$0.11

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$29.11

Value

$22.68

PnL

-$6.43

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 87%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+43 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHeat 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.