Spread: Heat (-28.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (43%) · Jazz at 88¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Heat13¢Jazz87¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 43%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$0.56

Smart Money Entry

88.7¢ → 87.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat13%

Jazz88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,179

Combined PnL-$6.24

Heat4 traders

Total Value$123.45

Total Shares1,042

Combined PnL+$5.68

Jazz — 43%Heat — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Heat) and the top 1000 (6 on Jazz) disagree here.

ctrJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jazzavg 88.1¢	$785.26	$779.56	-$5.71	56% 502-393 (895)
65 6512395314597884	Jazzavg 89.1¢	$194.67	$193.44	-$1.24	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Heatavg 12.7¢	$82.67	$81.31	-$1.36	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
SE sentrio<$100	Jazzavg 94¢	$65.74	$66.44	+$0.7	35% 266-489 (755)
RN1CTR<$100	Heatavg 10.2¢	$23.54	$31.05	+$7.51	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Heatavg 6¢	$6.96	$5.8	-$1.16	48% 959-1032 (1991)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Heatavg 10¢	$4.6	$5.29	+$0.69	59% 3119-2207 (5326)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jazz

Invested

$785.26

Value

$779.56

PnL

-$5.71

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

6512395314597884

Jazz

Invested

$194.67

Value

$193.44

PnL

-$1.24

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$82.67

Value

$81.31

PnL

-$1.36

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

sentrio<$100

Jazz

Invested

$65.74

Value

$66.44

PnL

+$0.7

Record

35%

266-489 (755)

RN1CTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$23.54

Value

$31.05

PnL

+$7.51

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$6.96

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$1.16

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Heat

Invested

$4.6

Value

$5.29

PnL

+$0.69

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Heat) and the top 1000 (6 on Jazz) disagree here.

ctrJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedHeat 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.