Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 244.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 96¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$120.09

Smart Money Entry

93.3¢ → 95.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,393

Combined PnL-$87.4

Over4 traders

Total Value$69.44

Total Shares1,542

Combined PnL-$32.69

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 94¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$113.23	56% 504-395 (899)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 91.8¢	$590.19	$482.98	+$19.69	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
RN1	Underavg 92.1¢	$192.94	$200.07	+$7.14	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 6.6¢	$96.43	$65.49	-$30.94	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 92¢	$46	$45	-$1	49% 450-474 (924)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$4.2	$3.15	-$1.05	62% 2365-1458 (3823)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 9.1¢	$1.33	$0.58	-$0.75	54% 401-336 (737)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$0.17	$0.22	+$0.04	48% 969-1052 (2021)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$1,735.27

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$113.23

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$590.19

Value

$482.98

PnL

+$19.69

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

RN1

Under

Invested

$192.94

Value

$200.07

PnL

+$7.14

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$96.43

Value

$65.49

PnL

-$30.94

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$46

Value

$45

PnL

-$1

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.2

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$1.05

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.33

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$0.75

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.04

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.