Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Knicks (68%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Knicks (-10.5)
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (88%) · Bucks at 32¢ · $388 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
8
Bucks 88%
$388.25
-$8.66
32.8¢ → 32¢
-2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 32%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 68%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+5 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Bucksavg 33¢ | $166.43 | $161.52 | -$4.91 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Bucksavg 33¢ | $99.02 | $96.02 | -$3 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 33.2¢ | $47.72 | $46.06 | -$1.66 | 47% 149-168 (317) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 31.3¢ | $42.47 | $43.37 | +$0.91 | 26% 234-663 (897) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Knicksavg 66¢ | $21.12 | $21.12 | -$0 | 61% 899-577 (1476) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 31¢ | $12.39 | $12.8 | +$0.41 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 34¢ | $6.12 | $5.76 | -$0.36 | 26% 234-653 (887) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $1.6 | -$0.05 | 26% 234-672 (906) |
Invested
$166.43
Value
$161.52
PnL
-$4.91
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$99.02
Value
$96.02
PnL
-$3
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
Invested
$47.72
Value
$46.06
PnL
-$1.66
Record
47%
149-168 (317)
Invested
$42.47
Value
$43.37
PnL
+$0.91
Record
26%
234-663 (897)
Invested
$21.12
Value
$21.12
PnL
-$0
Record
61%
899-577 (1476)
Invested
$12.39
Value
$12.8
PnL
+$0.41
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
Invested
$6.12
Value
$5.76
PnL
-$0.36
Record
26%
234-653 (887)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.6
PnL
-$0.05
Record
26%
234-672 (906)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.