Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 46¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$316.08

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 46¢

-14% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$781.01

Total Shares1,181

Combined PnL+$409.68

Over2 traders

Total Value$350.16

Total Shares800

Combined PnL-$93.6

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 19.3¢	$280.85	$643.99	+$363.14	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 56¢	$280	$207.5	-$72.5	54% 217-188 (405)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 49¢	$163.76	$142.66	-$21.1	56% 488-383 (871)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 46¢	$51.27	$65.21	+$13.93	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
RN1<$100	Underavg 35.9¢	$33.87	$55.24	+$21.37	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 17.4¢	$5.34	$16.58	+$11.24	54% 383-322 (705)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$280.85

Value

$643.99

PnL

+$363.14

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$280

Value

$207.5

PnL

-$72.5

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$163.76

Value

$142.66

PnL

-$21.1

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$51.27

Value

$65.21

PnL

+$13.93

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$33.87

Value

$55.24

PnL

+$21.37

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$5.34

Value

$16.58

PnL

+$11.24

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.