Spread: Thunder (-11.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (29%) · Trail Blazers at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 11

Thunder<1¢Trail Blazers>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 29%

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$260.77

Smart Money Entry

92¢ → 99.6¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Thunder0%

Trail Blazers100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers2 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares6,518

Combined PnL+$497.64

Thunder5 traders

Total Value$64.39

Total Shares2,563

Combined PnL-$236.88

Trail Blazers — 29%Thunder — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Trail Blazersavg 96.8¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$102.56	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 85.8¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$395.09	56% 563-451 (1014)
TA takeormakeCTR	Thunderavg 18¢	$129.05	$25.09	-$103.95	59% 3145-2227 (5372)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Thunderavg 5.7¢	$57.25	$19.74	-$37.51	51% 3200-3120 (6320)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Thunderavg 16¢	$95.72	$8.05	-$44.73	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
RN1CTR<$100	Thunderavg 14¢	$53.4	$5.91	-$47.49	57% 3877-2879 (6756)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Thunderavg 22¢	$8.8	$5.6	-$3.2	29% 322-803 (1125)

Flaznorp

Trail Blazers

Invested

$3,582.06

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$102.56

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,417.61

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$395.09

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

takeormakeCTR

Thunder

Invested

$129.05

Value

$25.09

PnL

-$103.95

Record

59%

3145-2227 (5372)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$57.25

Value

$19.74

PnL

-$37.51

Record

51%

3200-3120 (6320)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$95.72

Value

$8.05

PnL

-$44.73

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

RN1CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$53.4

Value

$5.91

PnL

-$47.49

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

VenusianCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$8.8

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$3.2

Record

29%

322-803 (1125)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.