Spread: Trail Blazers (-18.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (60%) · Trail Blazers at 54¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 11

Trail Blazers54¢Thunder46¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 60%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

-$346.84

Smart Money Entry

45¢ → 53.9¢

+20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

3 of 5 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers54%

Thunder46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,881

Combined PnL-$22.57

Thunder2 traders

Total Value$815.17

Total Shares2,036

Combined PnL-$324.27

Trail Blazers — 60%Thunder — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Thunderavg 50.6¢	$2.0K	$3.3K	+$1.4K	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 14.5¢	$523.93	$2.2K	+$1.7K
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 50.6¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$333.41
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Thunderavg 89.2¢	$4.4K	$3.2K	$-1.2K	56% 563-451 (1014)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 51.2¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$88.71
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 89.2¢	$2.7K	$1.4K	$-1.3K
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Trail Blazersavg 46.5¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$61.94	53% 234-204 (438)
TA takeormake	Trail Blazersavg 43¢	$475.4	$513.99	+$38.59	59% 3145-2227 (5372)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Thunderavg 57.7¢	$741.94	$500.17	-$241.77	51% 3200-3120 (6320)
SU suitcase6628CTR	Thunderavg 53¢	$397.5	$315	-$82.5	63% 193-112 (305)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Thunderavg 55¢	$167.7	$148.04	-$11.5	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 50.3¢	$73.17	$78.43	+$5.26
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 55¢	$82.99	$69.6	-$16.76
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Thunderavg 58.2¢	$90.45	$100	+$9.56	53% 5580-4967 (10547)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 58.2¢	$58.2	$54.45	-$3.75
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 32.2¢	$32.25	$45.55	+$13.31
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Thunderavg 65.3¢	$93.92	$71.31	+$1.17	48% 512-544 (1056)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 33.4¢	$26.29	$42.45	+$15.49
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 65.3¢	$40.9	$28.86	-$14.31
RN1<$100	Trail Blazersavg 8.8¢	$9.2	$9.98	+$0.78	57% 3877-2879 (6756)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1,966.66

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$523.9314.5¢+$1.7K

Thunder$1,439.7150.6¢-$333.41

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$4,427.27

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$1,696.6651.2¢+$88.71

Thunder$2,730.6189.2¢$-1.3K

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,552.21

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$61.94

Record

53%

234-204 (438)

takeormake

Trail Blazers

Invested

$475.4

Value

$513.99

PnL

+$38.59

Record

59%

3145-2227 (5372)

6512395314597884CTR

Thunder

Invested

$741.94

Value

$500.17

PnL

-$241.77

Record

51%

3200-3120 (6320)

suitcase6628CTR

Thunder

Invested

$397.5

Value

$315

PnL

-$82.5

Record

63%

193-112 (305)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$167.7

Value

$148.04

PnL

-$11.5

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$73.1750.3¢+$5.26

Thunder$82.9955¢-$16.76

cigarettesARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$90.45

Value

$100

PnL

+$9.56

Record

53%

5580-4967 (10547)

Both legs:

Thunder$58.258.2¢-$3.75

Trail Blazers$32.2532.2¢+$13.31

Pan9XARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$93.92

Value

$71.31

PnL

+$1.17

Record

48%

512-544 (1056)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$26.2933.4¢+$15.49

Thunder$40.965.3¢-$14.31

RN1<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$0.78

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

3 of 5 top traders (60%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

53.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

178.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.