Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (33%) · Thunder at 79¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11

Trail Blazers22¢Thunder78¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 33%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$30.49

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 78.5¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers22%

Thunder79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder3 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,797

Combined PnL+$215.79

Trail Blazers6 traders

Total Value$822.6

Total Shares3,553

Combined PnL-$246.28

Thunder — 33%Trail Blazers — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Thunder) and the top 1000 (6 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Thunderavg 71.3¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$215.54	55% 541-436 (977)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Trail Blazersavg 36.8¢	$471.53	$377.61	-$93.92	53% 228-199 (427)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Trail Blazersavg 26.4¢	$494.8	$365.46	-$129.35	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
RN1	Thunderavg 63¢	$160.02	$160.02	+$0	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 25.2¢	$61.24	$47.34	-$13.9	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
TA takeormake<$100	Thunderavg 77¢	$37.73	$37.98	+$0.25	58% 3133-2226 (5359)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 22¢	$22	$19.5	-$2.5	62% 2389-1477 (3866)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 39.5¢	$12.86	$7.33	-$5.54	49% 498-518 (1016)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 27¢	$6.45	$5.38	-$1.08	48% 1027-1110 (2137)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Thunder

Invested

$2,492.05

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$215.54

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$471.53

Value

$377.61

PnL

-$93.92

Record

53%

228-199 (427)

FlaznorpCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$494.8

Value

$365.46

PnL

-$129.35

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

RN1

Thunder

Invested

$160.02

Value

$160.02

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$61.24

Value

$47.34

PnL

-$13.9

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

takeormake<$100

Thunder

Invested

$37.73

Value

$37.98

PnL

+$0.25

Record

58%

3133-2226 (5359)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$22

Value

$19.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

62%

2389-1477 (3866)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$12.86

Value

$7.33

PnL

-$5.54

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$6.45

Value

$5.38

PnL

-$1.08

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Thunder) and the top 1000 (6 on Trail Blazers) disagree here.

ctrTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.