Spread: Suns (-8.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (78%) · Suns at 98¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 6

Suns98¢Magic2¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 78%

Total Value

$16.7K

Combined PnL

$440.63

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 97.7¢

+31% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Suns98%

Magic2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Suns7 traders

Total Value$16.1K

Total Shares17,759

Combined PnL+$683.79

Magic2 traders

Total Value$667.73

Total Shares6,905

Combined PnL-$243.17

Suns — 78%Magic — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Sunsavg 85.4¢	$8.9K	$8.9K	-$10.85	51% 26028-24687 (50715)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Sunsavg 66.8¢	$4.7K	$4.3K	+$612.15	56% 8329-6493 (14822)
RN1	Sunsavg 84.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$26.11	53% 61517-53815 (115332)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Sunsavg 51¢	$831.49	$839.64	+$8.15	46% 1576-1854 (3430)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Sunsavg 53.2¢	$799.64	$758.45	-$41.19	50% 4446-4373 (8819)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Magicavg 48¢	$482.41	$507.48	+$25.06	51% 4775-4634 (9409)
TA takeormakeCTR	Magicavg 7¢	$428.49	$160.26	-$268.23	52% 4918-4466 (9384)
38 38791873984189	Sunsavg 43.4¢	$62.99	$136.28	+$73.29	48% 61419-66265 (127684)
PA Pan9X<$100	Sunsavg 73.5¢	$49.26	$45.87	+$16.13	54% 9826-8264 (18090)

Flaznorp

Suns

Invested

$8,899.2

Value

$8.9K

PnL

-$10.85

Record

51%

26028-24687 (50715)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Suns

Invested

$4,670.11

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$612.15

Record

56%

8329-6493 (14822)

RN1

Suns

Invested

$1,083.92

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$26.11

Record

53%

61517-53815 (115332)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Suns

Invested

$831.49

Value

$839.64

PnL

+$8.15

Record

46%

1576-1854 (3430)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Suns

Invested

$799.64

Value

$758.45

PnL

-$41.19

Record

50%

4446-4373 (8819)

6512395314597884CTR

Magic

Invested

$482.41

Value

$507.48

PnL

+$25.06

Record

51%

4775-4634 (9409)

takeormakeCTR

Magic

Invested

$428.49

Value

$160.26

PnL

-$268.23

Record

52%

4918-4466 (9384)

38791873984189

Suns

Invested

$62.99

Value

$136.28

PnL

+$73.29

Record

48%

61419-66265 (127684)

Pan9X<$100

Suns

Invested

$49.26

Value

$45.87

PnL

+$16.13

Record

54%

9826-8264 (18090)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.