Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 56¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 57%
1 arb excluded
$6.1K
-$24.18
53.9¢ → 55.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 54¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$95.4 | 54% 17515-14721 (32236) |
 nigiri99CTR | Underavg 46.9¢ | $2.3K | $2.1K | -$117.33 | 46% 7288-8598 (15886) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 53.5¢ | $509.62 | $234.05 | -$3.15 | 47% 13045-14637 (27682) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 53.5¢ | $133.01 | $137.93 | +$2.25 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47¢ | $101.52 | $96.12 | -$5.4 | |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Underavg 45¢ | $115.2 | $113.92 | -$1.28 | 50% 7248-7348 (14596) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $78.75 | $76.18 | -$2.57 | 58% 43629-31734 (75363) |
65 6512395314597884<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $52 | $53.5 | +$1.5 | 49% 2929-3050 (5979) |
GA GamblingAddict12345<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $19.99 | $19.99 | +$0 | 51% 3967-3864 (7831) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $10.6 | $10.7 | +$0.1 | 56% 7471-5987 (13458) |
Invested
$3,370.49
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$95.4
Record
54%
17515-14721 (32236)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$2,258.23
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$117.33
Record
46%
7288-8598 (15886)
Invested
$509.62
Value
$234.05
PnL
-$3.15
Record
47%
13045-14637 (27682)
Both legs:
Invested
$115.2
Value
$113.92
PnL
-$1.28
Record
50%
7248-7348 (14596)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$78.75
Value
$76.18
PnL
-$2.57
Record
58%
43629-31734 (75363)
Invested
$52
Value
$53.5
PnL
+$1.5
Record
49%
2929-3050 (5979)
Invested
$19.99
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
3967-3864 (7831)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$10.6
Value
$10.7
PnL
+$0.1
Record
56%
7471-5987 (13458)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.