Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Spurs, while the market favors Bulls (56%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Spurs (-16.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (100%) · Spurs at 44¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Spurs
5
Spurs 100%
$1.4K
-$2.14
43.9¢ → 43.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidSpurs at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Bulls 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Spursavg 43.4¢ | $714.92 | $719.13 | +$4.2 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
DV dv-pmCTR | Spursavg 44¢ | $254.76 | $251.87 | -$2.89 | — 6-5 (11) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Spursavg 43.5¢ | $434.64 | $181.14 | +$2.8 | 51% 455-429 (884) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Spursavg 45¢ | $174.6 | $168.78 | -$5.82 | 51% 1843-1797 (3640) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Spursavg 44¢ | $37.93 | $37.5 | -$0.43 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
Invested
$714.92
Value
$719.13
PnL
+$4.2
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$254.76
Value
$251.87
PnL
-$2.89
Record
—
6-5 (11)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$434.64
Value
$181.14
PnL
+$2.8
Record
51%
455-429 (884)
Invested
$174.6
Value
$168.78
PnL
-$5.82
Record
51%
1843-1797 (3640)
Invested
$37.93
Value
$37.5
PnL
-$0.43
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.