Spurs vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 79¢ · $321 held · ended Nov 12

Over79¢Under21¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$321.29

Combined PnL

$54.59

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 79¢

+22% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over79%

Under21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$203.8

Total Shares259

Combined PnL+$36.91

Under3 traders

Total Value$117.49

Total Shares280

Combined PnL+$17.67

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 65.3¢	$156.8	$188.4	+$31.6	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$82.25	$98.7	+$16.45	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 58¢	$14.13	$15.4	+$5.31	55% 680-552 (1232)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$10.24	$10.24	+$0	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$7.34	$8.56	+$1.22	47% 299-342 (641)

RN1

Over

Invested

$156.8

Value

$188.4

PnL

+$31.6

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$82.25

Value

$98.7

PnL

+$16.45

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$14.13

Value

$15.4

PnL

+$5.31

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.24

Value

$10.24

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.34

Value

$8.56

PnL

+$1.22

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.