Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors Wizards (54%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Pacers (-3.5)
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (86%) · Pacers at 47¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
7
Pacers 86%
$3.4K
-$35.56
48¢ → 46.5¢
-3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Wizards 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 739633786CTR | Pacersavg 48.3¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$66.33 | 6% 11-189 (200) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Pacersavg 48¢ | $572.64 | $572.65 | +$0 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
VE VenusianCTR | Pacersavg 47¢ | $550.67 | $550.28 | -$0.39 | 30% 376-862 (1238) |
MA MadridTime | Wizardsavg 49¢ | $506.41 | $537.41 | +$31 | 31% 375-842 (1217) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 48¢ | $65.25 | $64.57 | -$0.68 | 37% 340-569 (909) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 47¢ | $20.24 | $10.58 | +$0.94 | 48% 658-706 (1364) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Pacersavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.4 | -$0.1 | 32% 281-611 (892) |
Invested
$1,748.7
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$66.33
Record
6%
11-189 (200)
Invested
$572.64
Value
$572.65
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$550.67
Value
$550.28
PnL
-$0.39
Record
30%
376-862 (1238)
Invested
$506.41
Value
$537.41
PnL
+$31
Record
31%
375-842 (1217)
Invested
$65.25
Value
$64.57
PnL
-$0.68
Record
37%
340-569 (909)
Invested
$20.24
Value
$10.58
PnL
+$0.94
Record
48%
658-706 (1364)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$0.1
Record
32%
281-611 (892)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.