Vitesse Arnhem vs. De Graafschap: O/U 4.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 52¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$1.7K
-$228.74
72.7¢ → 51.5¢
-29% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 74.6¢ | $979.16 | $669.79 | -$309.38 | 50% 32582-32710 (65292) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR | Overavg 24.9¢ | $298.18 | $562.86 | +$264.68 | 53% 2999-2623 (5622) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 74.4¢ | $490.86 | $349.49 | -$153.45 | 52% 47368-44608 (91976) |
LR lryyy | Underavg 58¢ | $149.66 | $131.63 | -$18.03 | 48% 39776-42707 (82483) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 75¢ | $39.28 | $26.71 | -$12.57 | 50% 27970-27422 (55392) |
Invested
$979.16
Value
$669.79
PnL
-$309.38
Record
50%
32582-32710 (65292)
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$298.18
Value
$562.86
PnL
+$264.68
Record
53%
2999-2623 (5622)
Invested
$490.86
Value
$349.49
PnL
-$153.45
Record
52%
47368-44608 (91976)
Invested
$149.66
Value
$131.63
PnL
-$18.03
Record
48%
39776-42707 (82483)
Invested
$39.28
Value
$26.71
PnL
-$12.57
Record
50%
27970-27422 (55392)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.