Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.6K
$311.3
75.2¢ → 50.5¢
-33% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
165h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR | Noavg 27.1¢ | $113.9 | $855.42 | +$741.52 | 45% 112-138 (250) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yesavg 70.7¢ | $543.34 | $309.5 | -$233.84 | 50% 415-417 (832) |
XC xcaiox | Yesavg 74.4¢ | $300 | $203.73 | -$162.83 | 77% 200-61 (261) |
DE dedidancCTR | Noavg 34.8¢ | $30.69 | $102.85 | +$72.16 | 57% 103-77 (180) |
TH thoodr | Yesavg 94¢ | $156.48 | $84.07 | -$105.71 | 96% 631-24 (655) |
Invested
$113.9
Value
$855.42
PnL
+$741.52
Record
45%
112-138 (250)
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$543.34
Value
$309.5
PnL
-$233.84
Record
50%
415-417 (832)
Invested
$300
Value
$203.73
PnL
-$162.83
Record
77%
200-61 (261)
Invested
$30.69
Value
$102.85
PnL
+$72.16
Record
57%
103-77 (180)
Invested
$156.48
Value
$84.07
PnL
-$105.71
Record
96%
631-24 (655)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.