Consensus PnL $98K · win rate 55% (414–337, n=751) · was PM monthly #979 · holds 67 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$98.4K
Record
414W / 337L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 751 settled
Batting Avg
54.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1451
Source
PM monthly #979
Trades
1,628
Markets
1,097
Volume
$747.6K
Top consensus positions
67 in listed consensus markets · 40 of 67 on the consensus side (60%)- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes $12K · now 54¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (76% of 21)
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Yes $4.2K · now 56¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (54% of 13)
- Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Yes $2.7K · now 99¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Yes $2.3K · now 55¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (58% of 12)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes $2.3K · now 21¢ · in at 19¢with the consensus (64% of 14)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.1K · now 71¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (82% of 110)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $2.0K · now 10¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes $1.9K · now 9¢ · in at 14¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
Specialties
614 settled consensus markets · held side won 62% at an average entry of 53¢- Tech
+11 pts
side won 65% of 399 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +11%
- Politics
+17 pts
side won 72% of 18 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +8%
- Finance
+3 pts
side won 44% of 50 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 38% of 50 at an average 40¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 35%(won 10% of 212)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 64% of 64)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 79% of 66)
- 70¢ and up: 44%(won 98% of 272)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.