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11
Consensus PnL -$3.8K · win rate 57% (77–58, n=135) · was PM monthly #985 · holds 57 consensus positions
0x11f8a220...28a0ed31Polymarket
⚖️Arb🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$-3.8K
Record
77W / 58L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 135 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1351
Source
PM monthly #985
Trades
89
Markets
252
Volume
$140.9K
Top consensus positions
57 in listed consensus markets · 25 of 57 on the consensus side (44%)- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026?No $2.6K · now 44¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?Yes $1.6K · now 56¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?No $1.5K · now 87¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (57% of 8)
- Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?No $1.2K · now 8¢ · in at 10¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No $1.1K · now 83¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Yes $717 · now 12¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $713 · now 66¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (68% of 131)
- Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Yes $565 · now 99¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
Specialties
77 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 76¢- Tech
+21 pts
side won 100% of 57 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +20%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 100% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 88% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 100% of 8)
- 70¢ and up: 74%(won 100% of 57)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.