Consensus PnL $25K · win rate 45% (117–142, n=259) · was PM monthly #976 · holds 29 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$24.7K
Record
117W / 142L
Win Rate
45.0%
of 259 settled
Batting Avg
55.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1983
Source
PM monthly #976
Trades
320
Markets
364
Volume
$536.9K
Top consensus positions
29 in listed consensus markets · 16 of 29 on the consensus side (55%)- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $6.2K · now 54¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (74% of 27)
- Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No $5.2K · now 54¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (50% of 26)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?Yes $3.3K · now 18¢ · in at 11¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes $2.7K · now 30¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (54% of 13)
- Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?Yes $2.0K · now 53¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (50% of 10)
- Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?Yes $1.6K · now 62¢ · in at 27¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes $1.4K · now 11¢ · in at 6¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?No $1.3K · now 10¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
163 settled consensus markets · held side won 70% at an average entry of 55¢- Tech
+15 pts
side won 77% of 78 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +12%
- Geopolitics
+19 pts
side won 69% of 42 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +14%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 17% of 46)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 80% of 25)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 86% of 22)
- 70¢ and up: 43%(won 96% of 70)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.