Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
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2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 41¢ · $423 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$422.77
-$65.48
64.8¢ → 41¢
-37% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
149h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KimchiCapitalCTR | Yesavg 57.6¢ | $186.22 | $138.92 | -$47.3 | 75% 540-176 (716) |
XC xcaioxCTR | Yesavg 73.2¢ | $200 | $117.56 | -$79.7 | 77% 200-61 (261) |
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876<$100 | Noavg 20.8¢ | $22.85 | $62.55 | +$40.25 | 45% 112-138 (250) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate<$100 | Noavg 38.6¢ | $39.37 | $58.14 | +$19.28 | 50% 415-417 (832) |
DE dedidanc<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $43.2 | $45.6 | +$2 | 57% 103-77 (180) |
KimchiCapitalCTRInvested
$186.22
Value
$138.92
PnL
-$47.3
Record
75%
540-176 (716)
Invested
$200
Value
$117.56
PnL
-$79.7
Record
77%
200-61 (261)
Invested
$22.85
Value
$62.55
PnL
+$40.25
Record
45%
112-138 (250)
Contentious-Dinnerdate<$100Invested
$39.37
Value
$58.14
PnL
+$19.28
Record
50%
415-417 (832)
Invested
$43.2
Value
$45.6
PnL
+$2
Record
57%
103-77 (180)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.