Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 38.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 54¢ · $5K held
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$5.0K
$-2.5K
52.3¢ → 54.3¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+30 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Late
151h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI biying99999 | Underavg 57.4¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | $-2.0K | 49% 146-152 (298) |
 RN1 | Underavg 49¢ | $1.8K | $1.3K | +$750.05 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
SU SunflowaRebuildYear | Underavg 49.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | $-1.2K | 46% 454-543 (997) |
FE ferrariChampions2026 | Underavg 49¢ | $512.41 | $433.65 | -$2.76 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 45.7¢ | $27.17 | $27.17 | +$0 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
Invested
$2,018.45
Value
$2.0K
PnL
$-2.0K
Record
49%
146-152 (298)
RN1Invested
$1,838.08
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$750.05
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$1,269.13
Value
$1.3K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
46%
454-543 (997)
Invested
$512.41
Value
$433.65
PnL
-$2.76
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$27.17
Value
$27.17
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.