Jaguars vs. Ravens

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Jaguars (50%) · Jaguars at 79¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 6

Jaguars79¢Ravens21¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jaguars

Consensus Traders

Jaguars 50%

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

$237.31

Smart Money Entry

68.4¢ → 79¢

+15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralJaguars at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jaguars

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jaguars79%

Ravens21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jaguars4 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares11,970

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Ravens4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares6,638

Combined PnL-$857.61

Jaguars — 50%Ravens — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Jaguars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJaguars 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpRavens 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJaguars 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Jaguars 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Jaguarsavg 66.6¢	$6.6K	$7.4K	+$857.04	49% 2923-3042 (5965)
Nooserac	Jaguarsavg 74.8¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$131.6	52% 5890-5488 (11378)
LU lukibazdonauki754CTR	Ravensavg 37.5¢	$1.4K	$848.57	-$636.74	60% 894-585 (1479)
PA Parkan312CTR	Ravensavg 28¢	$584.64	$459.36	-$146.16	74% 307-108 (415)
RollAwayTheDew	Jaguarsavg 67.2¢	$207.41	$240.71	+$33.29	54% 484-419 (903)
LE leegunner	Jaguarsavg 48.4¢	$113.11	$186.1	+$72.98	41% 1295-1880 (3175)
38 38791873984189CTR	Ravens	$116.02	$116.02	-$11.01	47% 12972-14546 (27518)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Ravensavg 59.4¢	$98.56	$34.86	-$63.7	46% 7287-8594 (15881)

6512395314597884

Jaguars

Invested

$6,590.26

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$857.04

Record

49%

2923-3042 (5965)

Nooserac

Jaguars

Invested

$2,333.38

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$131.6

Record

52%

5890-5488 (11378)

lukibazdonauki754CTR

Ravens

Invested

$1,446.77

Value

$848.57

PnL

-$636.74

Record

60%

894-585 (1479)

Parkan312CTR

Ravens

Invested

$584.64

Value

$459.36

PnL

-$146.16

Record

74%

307-108 (415)

RollAwayTheDew

Jaguars

Invested

$207.41

Value

$240.71

PnL

+$33.29

Record

54%

484-419 (903)

leegunner

Jaguars

Invested

$113.11

Value

$186.1

PnL

+$72.98

Record

41%

1295-1880 (3175)

38791873984189CTR

Ravens

Invested

$116.02

Value

$116.02

PnL

-$11.01

Record

47%

12972-14546 (27518)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$98.56

Value

$34.86

PnL

-$63.7

Record

46%

7287-8594 (15881)

Research grade

NeutralJaguars at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jaguars

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Jaguars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJaguars 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpRavens 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJaguars 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Jaguars 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jaguars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.