Consensus PnL $1.4M · win rate 52% (5262–4802, n=10064) · PM monthly #40 · holds 54 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.4M
Record
5262W / 4802L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 10064 settled
Batting Avg
43.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1600
Source
PM monthly #40
Trades
12,225
Markets
11,968
Volume
$112.5M
Top consensus positions
54 in listed consensus markets · 41 of 54 on the consensus side (76%)- Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?No $52K · now 89¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (45% of 11)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $34K · now 66¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (68% of 131)
- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?No $13K · now 90¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (60% of 15)
- Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?No $11K · now 86¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (20% of 15)
- Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?No $9.6K · now 100¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (10% of 10)
- Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $9.2K · now 45¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship?No $7.3K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (33% of 9)
- Will Elche CF win on 2026-11-01?No $6.0K · now 60¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
Specialties
10,035 settled consensus markets · held side won 54% at an average entry of 51¢- NBA
+8 pts
side won 59% of 1705 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +7%
- College Football
+7 pts
side won 58% of 639 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +9%
- Esports
+3 pts
side won 52% of 1498 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Other Sports — held side won 49% of 164 at an average 50¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 19% of 1314)
- 30–50¢: 36%(won 46% of 3583)
- 50–70¢: 35%(won 61% of 3476)
- 70¢ and up: 17%(won 85% of 1662)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.