Consensus PnL $340K · win rate 94% (1624–103, n=1727) · PM monthly #643 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$340.3K
Record
1624W / 103L
Win Rate
94.0%
of 1727 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#168
Source
PM monthly #643
Trades
550
Markets
2,775
Volume
$1.9M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 5 on the consensus side (60%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $6.5K · now 67¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (65% of 138)
- Colts vs. JaguarsColts $177 · now 0¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (Jaguars)
- Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 54.5Under $72 · now 81¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Over)
- Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 52.5Under $49 · now 74¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (55% of 14)
- Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 60.5Under $3 · now 92¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
Specialties
279 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 57¢- NFL
+48 pts
side won 99% of 102 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +26%
- College Football
+47 pts
side won 98% of 60 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +41%
- NBA
+53 pts
side won 100% of 20 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +41%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 95% of 21)
- 30–50¢: 34%(won 99% of 95)
- 50–70¢: 32%(won 100% of 88)
- 70¢ and up: 27%(won 99% of 75)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.