Spread: Broncos (-3.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (100%) · Chiefs at 65¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Chiefs
5
Chiefs 100%
$29.5K
-$742.26
66.6¢ → 64.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralChiefs at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Chiefsavg 67.3¢ | $14.3K | $13.9K | -$365.31 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
 VeryLucky888 | Chiefsavg 66.2¢ | $9.9K | $9.7K | -$262.23 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
BA Bagwell306 | Chiefsavg 66¢ | $5.3K | $5.2K | -$120 | 58% 4067-2890 (6957) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Chiefsavg 66¢ | $660 | $650 | +$5 | 53% 5696-5031 (10727) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Chiefsavg 65.9¢ | $33.6 | $33.12 | +$0.28 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
Invested
$14,271.81
Value
$13.9K
PnL
-$365.31
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
VeryLucky888Invested
$9,937.23
Value
$9.7K
PnL
-$262.23
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Invested
$5,280
Value
$5.2K
PnL
-$120
Record
58%
4067-2890 (6957)
Invested
$660
Value
$650
PnL
+$5
Record
53%
5696-5031 (10727)
Invested
$33.6
Value
$33.12
PnL
+$0.28
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.