Spread: Broncos (-7.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (60%) · Chiefs at 78¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Chiefs
5
Chiefs 60%
$17.0K
-$300.4
79.3¢ → 77.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralChiefs at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Chiefsavg 78.5¢ | $11.8K | $11.6K | -$75.09 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Chiefsavg 81¢ | $5.4K | $5.2K | -$232.27 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Broncosavg 20.7¢ | $69.54 | $75.58 | +$4.36 | 53% 453-396 (849) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Broncosavg 21¢ | $61.11 | $65.48 | +$2.91 | 50% 7125-7171 (14296) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Chiefsavg 78.4¢ | $65.83 | $65.1 | -$0.31 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$11,775.12
Value
$11.6K
PnL
-$75.09
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Invested
$5,421.59
Value
$5.2K
PnL
-$232.27
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$69.54
Value
$75.58
PnL
+$4.36
Record
53%
453-396 (849)
Invested
$61.11
Value
$65.48
PnL
+$2.91
Record
50%
7125-7171 (14296)
Invested
$65.83
Value
$65.1
PnL
-$0.31
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.