Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Dolphins, while the market favors Colts (56%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Dolphins vs. Colts
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Dolphins (43%) · Dolphins at 44¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Dolphins
7
Dolphins 43%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$6.75
44.1¢ → 43.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralDolphins at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Colts 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
43% of non-arb traders are on Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Dolphinsavg 42¢ | $285.43 | $289.8 | +$4.37 | 48% 709-765 (1474) |
| └ Dolphins leg | Dolphinsavg 42¢ | $183.54 | $187.91 | +$4.37 | |
| └ Colts leg | Coltsavg 56¢ | $101.89 | $101.89 | +$0 | |
OD Oddstorm | Coltsavg 56¢ | $265.79 | $265.79 | +$0 | 14% 15-94 (109) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Dolphinsavg 45.2¢ | $226.24 | $215 | -$11.24 | 47% 66-74 (140) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Dolphinsavg 43¢ | $201 | $201 | +$0 | 47% 147-166 (313) |
BO BoomLaLa | Coltsavg 54¢ | $104.76 | $108.64 | +$3.88 | 14% 28-177 (205) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Dolphinsavg 42¢ | $13.29 | $13.61 | +$0.32 | 50% 1378-1394 (2772) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Coltsavg 56¢ | $11.78 | $11.87 | +$0.09 | 52% 244-227 (471) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Coltsavg 55¢ | $11.55 | $11.76 | +$0.21 | 48% 405-439 (844) |
Invested
$285.43
Value
$289.8
PnL
+$4.37
Record
48%
709-765 (1474)
Both legs:
Invested
$265.79
Value
$265.79
PnL
+$0
Record
14%
15-94 (109)
Invested
$226.24
Value
$215
PnL
-$11.24
Record
47%
66-74 (140)
Invested
$201
Value
$201
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
147-166 (313)
Invested
$104.76
Value
$108.64
PnL
+$3.88
Record
14%
28-177 (205)
Invested
$13.29
Value
$13.61
PnL
+$0.32
Record
50%
1378-1394 (2772)
Invested
$11.78
Value
$11.87
PnL
+$0.09
Record
52%
244-227 (471)
Invested
$11.55
Value
$11.76
PnL
+$0.21
Record
48%
405-439 (844)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.