Vikings vs. Lions
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (60%) · Lions at 63¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Lions
5
Lions 60%
$20.6K
$206.57
62¢ → 62.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLions at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsername | Lionsavg 62¢ | $12.1K | $12.2K | +$104.69 | 72% 6830-2625 (9455) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Vikingsavg 37¢ | $6.9K | $6.9K | +$92.66 | 53% 4278-3736 (8014) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Lionsavg 62¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$10.14 | 65% 1758-962 (2720) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Vikingsavg 38¢ | $114 | $111 | -$1.5 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Lionsavg 60.8¢ | $71.7 | $72.29 | +$0.58 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
Invested
$12,121.47
Value
$12.2K
PnL
+$104.69
Record
72%
6830-2625 (9455)
Invested
$6,857.16
Value
$6.9K
PnL
+$92.66
Record
53%
4278-3736 (8014)
Invested
$1,257.16
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$10.14
Record
65%
1758-962 (2720)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$114
Value
$111
PnL
-$1.5
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$71.7
Value
$72.29
PnL
+$0.58
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.