Giants vs. Eagles: O/U 46.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8

Over8¢Under92¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$133.41

Smart Money Entry

75¢ → 92.5¢

+23% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over8%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,465

Combined PnL+$64.39

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,088

Combined PnL-$197.8

Over — 57%Under — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 25¢	$906.71	$906.71	+$0	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
AN Anon455	Underavg 75¢	$802.05	$604.21	-$197.84	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 75¢	$565	$565	+$0	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 26¢	$85.53	$143.1	+$57.57	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$32	$13.92	+$5.92	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 74.8¢	$10.61	$10.65	+$0.04	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
PR primmCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$20	$8.7	+$0.9	46% 1426-1652 (3078)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$906.71

Value

$906.71

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$802.05

Value

$604.21

PnL

-$197.84

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$565

Value

$565

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$85.53

Value

$143.1

PnL

+$57.57

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32

Value

$13.92

PnL

+$5.92

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$10.61

Value

$10.65

PnL

+$0.04

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

primmCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$0.9

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.