49ers vs. Cowboys
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold 49ers (29%) · 49ers at 68¢ · $675 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
49ers
7
49ers 29%
$674.91
-$4.06
67.7¢ → 67.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
Neutral49ers at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
29% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA Gaditima | 49ersavg 68.4¢ | $171.81 | $168.28 | -$3.52 | 47% 66-74 (140) |
DA darkumbreon88 | 49ersavg 67¢ | $154.61 | $154.61 | -$0 | 61% 891-567 (1458) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Cowboysavg 31.6¢ | $141.43 | $143.41 | +$1.98 | 48% 709-765 (1474) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Cowboysavg 33¢ | $94.52 | $91.66 | -$2.86 | 34% 161-313 (474) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Cowboysavg 32¢ | $80.94 | $80.94 | -$0 | 48% 207-227 (434) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Cowboysavg 31.2¢ | $21.77 | $22.12 | +$0.35 | 48% 405-439 (844) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Cowboysavg 32¢ | $13.88 | $13.88 | +$0 | 50% 1378-1394 (2772) |
Invested
$171.81
Value
$168.28
PnL
-$3.52
Record
47%
66-74 (140)
Invested
$154.61
Value
$154.61
PnL
-$0
Record
61%
891-567 (1458)
Invested
$141.43
Value
$143.41
PnL
+$1.98
Record
48%
709-765 (1474)
Invested
$94.52
Value
$91.66
PnL
-$2.86
Record
34%
161-313 (474)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$80.94
Value
$80.94
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
207-227 (434)
Invested
$21.77
Value
$22.12
PnL
+$0.35
Record
48%
405-439 (844)
Invested
$13.88
Value
$13.88
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1378-1394 (2772)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.