Stars vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 89¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 100%
$2.3K
$602.06
52.6¢ → 89¢
+69% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 53.1¢ | $754.88 | $1.2K | +$424.88 | 51% 25776-24479 (50255) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 46¢ | $277.38 | $524.18 | +$255.87 | 48% 61202-65999 (127201) |
 RN1 | Underavg 55.2¢ | $370.12 | $321.6 | -$48.52 | 53% 61386-53697 (115083) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Underavg 55.2¢ | $273.03 | $237.32 | -$35.71 | 59% 32983-23158 (56141) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 63¢ | $23.94 | $29.07 | +$5.13 | 54% 9742-8135 (17877) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $9.61 | $10.03 | +$0.42 | 54% 18232-15342 (33574) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.4 | +$0 | 52% 8777-7982 (16759) |
Invested
$754.88
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$424.88
Record
51%
25776-24479 (50255)
Invested
$277.38
Value
$524.18
PnL
+$255.87
Record
48%
61202-65999 (127201)
RN1Invested
$370.12
Value
$321.6
PnL
-$48.52
Record
53%
61386-53697 (115083)
Invested
$273.03
Value
$237.32
PnL
-$35.71
Record
59%
32983-23158 (56141)
Invested
$23.94
Value
$29.07
PnL
+$5.13
Record
54%
9742-8135 (17877)
Invested
$9.61
Value
$10.03
PnL
+$0.42
Record
54%
18232-15342 (33574)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
8777-7982 (16759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.