Spread: Blues (-1.5)

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Red Wings (83%) · Red Wings at 84¢ · $26K held · ended Nov 11

Blues17¢Red Wings83¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Red Wings

Consensus Traders

Red Wings 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.5K

Combined PnL

$443.04

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 83.5¢

+28% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralRed Wings at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Red Wings

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Blues17%

Red Wings84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Red Wings5 traders

Total Value$24.9K

Total Shares37,690

Combined PnL+$442.84

Blues1 trader

Total Value$3.2

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.2

Red Wings — 83%Blues — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Red Wings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRed Wings 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Red Wings 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Red Wingsavg 65¢	$24.2K	$24.5K	+$371.6	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Red Wingsavg 65¢	$965.83	$595.52	+$18.38	48% 949-1019 (1968)
└ Red Wings leg	Red Wingsavg 65¢	$436.84	$463.73	+$32.77
└ Blues leg	Bluesavg 34.4¢	$146.18	$131.79	-$14.39
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Red Wingsavg 66¢	$272	$342.06	+$70.06	10% 88-785 (873)
0xheavy888<$100	Red Wingsavg 65¢	$65	$66	+$1	55% 120-97 (217)
PA Pan9X<$100	Red Wingsavg 65¢	$9.75	$9.9	+$0.15	49% 444-470 (914)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Bluesavg 30¢	$3	$3.2	+$0.2	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
GH ghorrock<$100	Red Wingsavg 65¢	$9.8	$2.05	+$0.03	54% 383-322 (705)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Red Wings

Invested

$24,153.75

Value

$24.5K

PnL

+$371.6

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$965.83

Value

$595.52

PnL

+$18.38

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Both legs:

Red Wings$436.8465¢+$32.77

Blues$146.1834.4¢-$14.39

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Red Wings

Invested

$272

Value

$342.06

PnL

+$70.06

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

0xheavy888<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$65

Value

$66

PnL

+$1

Record

55%

120-97 (217)

Pan9X<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$9.75

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.15

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Blues

Invested

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

ghorrock<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$9.8

Value

$2.05

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

Research grade

NeutralRed Wings at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Red Wings

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Red Wings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRed Wings 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Red Wings 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Red Wings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.