Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bruins, while the market favors Golden Knights (51%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Golden Knights vs. Bruins
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Bruins (71%) · Bruins at 50¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Bruins
7
Bruins 71%
1 arb excluded
$21.0K
$142.09
49¢ → 49.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralBruins at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Golden Knights 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Bruins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO royalestakeCTR | Bruinsavg 49¢ | $7.3K | $7.3K | +$75 | 47% 389-443 (832) |
PA para-VisionCTR | Bruinsavg 49¢ | $6.9K | $6.9K | +$70.01 | 55% 222-181 (403) |
CO cocococococo | Golden Knightsavg 51¢ | $6.7K | $3.4K | -$33.31 | 52% 1668-1539 (3207) |
 Stickman22CTR | Bruinsavg 49¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$20 | 52% 1677-1550 (3227) |
 fyrsken | Golden Knightsavg 51¢ | $765 | $750 | +$7.5 | 48% 301-322 (623) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Bruinsavg 49.7¢ | $332 | $331.64 | -$0.36 | 47% 12988-14555 (27543) |
| └ Bruins leg | Bruinsavg 49.7¢ | $261.67 | $260.6 | -$1.07 | |
| └ Golden Knights leg | Golden Knightsavg 50¢ | $70.34 | $71.04 | +$0.7 | |
PI PIPIZINCTR | Bruinsavg 49¢ | $301.35 | $304.43 | +$3.08 | 51% 435-423 (858) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Bruinsavg 50.6¢ | $8.6 | $8.42 | -$0.18 | 46% 7287-8596 (15883) |
Invested
$7,350
Value
$7.3K
PnL
+$75
Record
47%
389-443 (832)
Invested
$6,859.99
Value
$6.9K
PnL
+$70.01
Record
55%
222-181 (403)
Invested
$6,665.97
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$33.31
Record
52%
1668-1539 (3207)
Stickman22CTRInvested
$1,960
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$20
Record
52%
1677-1550 (3227)
fyrskenInvested
$765
Value
$750
PnL
+$7.5
Record
48%
301-322 (623)
Invested
$332
Value
$331.64
PnL
-$0.36
Record
47%
12988-14555 (27543)
Both legs:
Invested
$301.35
Value
$304.43
PnL
+$3.08
Record
51%
435-423 (858)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$8.6
Value
$8.42
PnL
-$0.18
Record
46%
7287-8596 (15883)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.