Consensus PnL $97K · win rate 51% (1051–1030, n=2081) · PM monthly #883 · holds 144 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$96.8K
Record
1051W / 1030L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 2081 settled
Batting Avg
63.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1679
Source
PM monthly #883 + pinned
Trades
71,794
Markets
3,957
Volume
$5.4M
Top consensus positions
144 in listed consensus markets · 114 of 144 on the consensus side (79%)- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $13K · now 71¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $8.9K · now 73¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (77% of 78)
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $4.7K · now 99¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (81% of 47)
- Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?No $4.3K · now 93¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (69% of 29)
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes $4.2K · now 68¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (60% of 60)
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No $4.2K · now 97¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (94% of 31)
- Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?No $4.1K · now 98¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (88% of 16)
- Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat?Yes $4.0K · now 79¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
Specialties
3,250 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 49¢- Mentions
+5 pts
side won 58% of 466 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +2%
- NHL
+2 pts
side won 51% of 1172 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +2%
- Elections
+3 pts
side won 43% of 306 · avg entry 40¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 40% of 231 at an average 43¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 22%(won 10% of 715)
- 30–50¢: 29%(won 43% of 937)
- 50–70¢: 28%(won 60% of 894)
- 70¢ and up: 22%(won 90% of 704)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.