Consensus PnL $206K · win rate 64% (384–213, n=597) · was PM monthly #975 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$205.7K
Record
384W / 213L
Win Rate
64.0%
of 597 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#975
Source
PM monthly #975
Trades
552
Markets
742
Volume
$2.5M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $2.1K · now 71¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (86% of 51)
- Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?Yes $1.4K · now 8¢ · in at 7¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the Carolina Hurricanes be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?Yes $345 · now 12¢ · in at 12¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?Yes $264 · now 6¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
441 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 49¢- NHL
+50 pts
side won 99% of 297 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +50%
- NFL
+49 pts
side won 99% of 68 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +50%
- College Football
+50 pts
side won 100% of 41 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +49%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 100% of 17)
- 30–50¢: 45%(won 98% of 198)
- 50–70¢: 49%(won 100% of 214)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 100% of 12)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.