Consensus PnL $521K · win rate 57% (213–158, n=371) · PM monthly #55 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$520.6K
Record
213W / 158L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 371 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1342
Source
PM monthly #55
Trades
247
Markets
408
Volume
$4.0M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Will T1 win Worlds 2026?Yes $8.7K · now 23¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (No)
- Spread: Rams (-17.5)Chargers $8.1K · now 82¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Chiefs vs. BroncosChiefs $4.3K · now 52¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (80% of 12)
- Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?Yes $102 · now 24¢ · in at 22¢with the consensus (42% of 12)
Specialties
358 settled consensus markets · held side won 59% at an average entry of 55¢- Esports
+6 pts
side won 63% of 215 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +8%
Weakest: NHL — held side won 49% of 93 at an average 51¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 0% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 27%(won 51% of 96)
- 50–70¢: 67%(won 60% of 239)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 86% of 21)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.