Devils vs. Jets: O/U 6.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$4.06
52.5¢ → 53¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$13.31 | 57% 3070-2308 (5378) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53¢ | $938.21 | $947.06 | +$8.85 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 46¢ | $410.44 | $414.9 | +$4.46 | |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 52.4¢ | $587.64 | $583.44 | -$4.2 | 48% 709-765 (1474) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 52.9¢ | $59.24 | $59.92 | +$0.68 | 55% 94-78 (172) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $36.04 | $35.36 | -$0.68 | 50% 1378-1394 (2772) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $12.19 | $12.31 | +$0.12 | 48% 405-439 (844) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $7.82 | $7.9 | +$0.07 | 29% 154-375 (529) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 52.5¢ | $5.27 | $5.22 | -$0.05 | 52% 244-227 (471) |
Invested
$1,348.65
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$13.31
Record
57%
3070-2308 (5378)
Both legs:
Invested
$587.64
Value
$583.44
PnL
-$4.2
Record
48%
709-765 (1474)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$59.24
Value
$59.92
PnL
+$0.68
Record
55%
94-78 (172)
Invested
$36.04
Value
$35.36
PnL
-$0.68
Record
50%
1378-1394 (2772)
Invested
$12.19
Value
$12.31
PnL
+$0.12
Record
48%
405-439 (844)
Invested
$7.82
Value
$7.9
PnL
+$0.07
Record
29%
154-375 (529)
Invested
$5.27
Value
$5.22
PnL
-$0.05
Record
52%
244-227 (471)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.