Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Senators, while the market favors Sabres (84%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Senators (-2.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Senators (67%) · Senators at 17¢ · $300 held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Senators
6
Senators 67%
$300.36
-$14.48
16.7¢ → 16.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidSenators at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Sabres 84%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Senatorsavg 16.7¢ | $204.54 | $190.18 | -$14.36 | 51% 24219-22949 (47168) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Sabresavg 84¢ | $84 | $84.49 | +$0.5 | 56% 7722-6185 (13907) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Sabresavg 84.7¢ | $15.16 | $15.13 | -$0.03 | 50% 20734-20980 (41714) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Senatorsavg 16.7¢ | $6.92 | $6.43 | -$0.49 | 51% 7648-7364 (15012) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Senatorsavg 16¢ | $3.69 | $3.57 | -$0.11 | 50% 25481-25189 (50670) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Senatorsavg 15¢ | $0.53 | $0.55 | +$0.02 | 48% 59237-63255 (122492) |
Invested
$204.54
Value
$190.18
PnL
-$14.36
Record
51%
24219-22949 (47168)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$84
Value
$84.49
PnL
+$0.5
Record
56%
7722-6185 (13907)
Invested
$15.16
Value
$15.13
PnL
-$0.03
Record
50%
20734-20980 (41714)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.92
Value
$6.43
PnL
-$0.49
Record
51%
7648-7364 (15012)
Invested
$3.69
Value
$3.57
PnL
-$0.11
Record
50%
25481-25189 (50670)
Invested
$0.53
Value
$0.55
PnL
+$0.02
Record
48%
59237-63255 (122492)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.