Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Utah, while the market favors Golden Knights (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Utah (-1.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (50%) · Utah at 0.4¢ · $874 held · ended Nov 12

Utah<1¢Golden Knights>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Utah

Consensus Traders

Utah 50%

Total Value

$873.84

Combined PnL

-$729.56

Smart Money Entry

24.9¢ → 0.4¢

-99% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUtah at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Golden Knights 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Utah0%

Golden Knights100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Golden Knights4 traders

Total Value$742.75

Total Shares957

Combined PnL+$50.92

Utah4 traders

Total Value$131.1

Total Shares3,655

Combined PnL-$780.48

Golden Knights — 50%Utah — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUtah 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGolden Knights 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Golden Knights 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Golden Knightsavg 73¢	$644.59	$679.91	+$35.32	51% 267-256 (523)
TA taylorsversionCTR	Utahavg 26.6¢	$863.63	$129.65	-$733.98	54% 100-86 (186)
GH ghorrock<$100	Golden Knightsavg 74¢	$30.19	$31.42	+$1.22	54% 789-676 (1465)
PA Pan9X<$100	Golden Knightsavg 75.5¢	$51.85	$25.94	+$14.09	47% 847-942 (1789)
38 38791873984189<$100	Golden Knightsavg 73¢	$5.19	$5.48	+$0.28	47% 1785-2006 (3791)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Utahavg 18.5¢	$40.09	$0.76	-$39.33	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Utahavg 4¢	$4	$0.35	-$3.65	53% 5981-5353 (11334)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Utahavg 4¢	$3.87	$0.34	-$3.53	36% 446-789 (1235)

nigiri99

Golden Knights

Invested

$644.59

Value

$679.91

PnL

+$35.32

Record

51%

267-256 (523)

taylorsversionCTR

Utah

Invested

$863.63

Value

$129.65

PnL

-$733.98

Record

54%

100-86 (186)

ghorrock<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$30.19

Value

$31.42

PnL

+$1.22

Record

54%

789-676 (1465)

Pan9X<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$51.85

Value

$25.94

PnL

+$14.09

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

38791873984189<$100

Golden Knights

Invested

$5.19

Value

$5.48

PnL

+$0.28

Record

47%

1785-2006 (3791)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$40.09

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$39.33

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Utah

Invested

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$3.65

Record

53%

5981-5353 (11334)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$3.87

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$3.53

Record

36%

446-789 (1235)

Research grade

AvoidUtah at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Golden Knights 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUtah 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGolden Knights 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Golden Knights 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6959.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7059.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.