Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Senators (71%) · Senators at 70¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Senators
7
Senators 71%
$3.6K
$8.81
71.1¢ → 69.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSenators at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Senators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Senatorsavg 71.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$43.6 | 56% 119-94 (213) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Senatorsavg 70¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$7.87 | 54% 1645-1416 (3061) |
 nigiri99CTR | Capitalsavg 28.2¢ | $571.67 | $609 | +$37.33 | 52% 128-119 (247) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Capitalsavg 27¢ | $216.3 | $240.39 | +$24.09 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Senatorsavg 71.2¢ | $40.74 | $39.76 | -$0.98 | 54% 358-310 (668) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Senatorsavg 70¢ | $10.5 | $10.42 | -$0.08 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Senatorsavg 71¢ | $3.55 | $3.47 | -$0.08 | 26% 177-517 (694) |
0xheavy888Invested
$1,695.8
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$43.6
Record
56%
119-94 (213)
Invested
$1,102.31
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$7.87
Record
54%
1645-1416 (3061)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$571.67
Value
$609
PnL
+$37.33
Record
52%
128-119 (247)
Invested
$216.3
Value
$240.39
PnL
+$24.09
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$40.74
Value
$39.76
PnL
-$0.98
Record
54%
358-310 (668)
Invested
$10.5
Value
$10.42
PnL
-$0.08
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$3.47
PnL
-$0.08
Record
26%
177-517 (694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.