Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (58%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 42¢ · $722 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$721.73
$8.69
40.6¢ → 42¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 58%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 40.5¢ | $1.2K | $506.4 | +$14.7 | 52% 47498-44700 (92198) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 63¢ | $135.47 | $127.76 | -$7.71 | 50% 33004-33062 (66066) |
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $154.1 | $64.72 | +$1.54 | 47% 2268-2572 (4840) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $15.52 | $11.06 | +$0.27 | 50% 27997-27469 (55466) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $7.28 | $7.19 | -$0.09 | 47% 2196-2511 (4707) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $3.22 | $3.19 | -$0.04 | 48% 2283-2446 (4729) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $1.4 | $1.41 | +$0.01 | 58% 22615-16691 (39306) |
Invested
$1,168.34
Value
$506.4
PnL
+$14.7
Record
52%
47498-44700 (92198)
Invested
$135.47
Value
$127.76
PnL
-$7.71
Record
50%
33004-33062 (66066)
Invested
$154.1
Value
$64.72
PnL
+$1.54
Record
47%
2268-2572 (4840)
Invested
$15.52
Value
$11.06
PnL
+$0.27
Record
50%
27997-27469 (55466)
Invested
$7.28
Value
$7.19
PnL
-$0.09
Record
47%
2196-2511 (4707)
Invested
$3.22
Value
$3.19
PnL
-$0.04
Record
48%
2283-2446 (4729)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.41
PnL
+$0.01
Record
58%
22615-16691 (39306)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.