Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (75%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Egersunds IK win on 2026-11-01?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 25¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 40%
$3.3K
$299.59
48.2¢ → 25¢
-48% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Noavg 47.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$52.09 | 50% 19450-19817 (39267) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 52.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$252.78 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Yesavg 51.3¢ | $284.06 | $279.77 | -$4.29 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 52¢ | $104 | $102 | -$1 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $1.08 | $1.09 | +$0.01 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
Invested
$1,607.11
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$52.09
Record
50%
19450-19817 (39267)
Invested
$1,050.99
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$252.78
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$284.06
Value
$279.77
PnL
-$4.29
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$104
Value
$102
PnL
-$1
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.09
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.