Papertrade FDV above $250M one day after launch?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 80¢ · $10K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$10.0K
-$176.57
72.8¢ → 80¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
291h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AllByMyseIf | Noavg 71.9¢ | $6.0K | $6.7K | +$677.58 | 65% 671-357 (1028) |
 gatonekkiCTR | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $2.9K | $1.9K | -$900 | 63% 22-13 (35) |
OD odsowner | Noavg 74¢ | $924.76 | $1.0K | +$75.53 | 55% 153-127 (280) |
HI hithitfar | Noavg 88¢ | $335.72 | $307.09 | -$28.63 | 58% 640-469 (1109) |
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.9¢ | $15.31 | $14.27 | -$1.05 | 58% 108-79 (187) |
AllByMyseIfInvested
$6,020.4
Value
$6.7K
PnL
+$677.58
Record
65%
671-357 (1028)
gatonekkiCTRInvested
$2,850
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$900
Record
63%
22-13 (35)
Invested
$924.76
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$75.53
Record
55%
153-127 (280)
Invested
$335.72
Value
$307.09
PnL
-$28.63
Record
58%
640-469 (1109)
Invested
$15.31
Value
$14.27
PnL
-$1.05
Record
58%
108-79 (187)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.