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Consensus PnL $9.3K · win rate 60% (6–4, n=10) · hand-picked wallet · holds 7 consensus positions
0x1398c3cd...b881a875Polymarket
⚖️Arb🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$9.3K
Record
6W / 4L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 10 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1189
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
874
Markets
48
Volume
$205.8K
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 7 on the consensus side (86%)- Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $9.5K · now 45¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
- Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes $5.6K · now 40¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes $3.9K · now 40¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?No $3.1K · now 72¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?No $2.9K · now 28¢ · in at 26¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Papertrade FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes $2.0K · now 20¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (No)
- Papertrade FDV above $75M one day after launch?Yes $1.6K · now 39¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
Specialties
34 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 54¢- Crypto
+28 pts
side won 76% of 17 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +34%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 26%(won 33% of 9)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 71% of 7)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 67% of 6)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 92% of 12)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.